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A Broker's Opinion
 

What’s Really Going On with the Housing Market, and What’s that Got to Do with

 the Economy Anyway?

 
Call it a recession; call it the Recession, or call it the Great Recession if you want to, but the fact is most of us are experiencing the greatest economic downturn of our lifetimes.  It has cut across all sectors and countries, and it started with our own housing collapse.

 

You’ve heard the story:  the returns from subprime mortgages were collected, packaged together, and then sold to investors around the world as a mortgage-backed security or one of

_____________________________

        

Call it a recession; call it

 “the Recession,” or call it

 the Great Recession if you want to, but the fact is most of us are experiencing the greatest economic downturn of our lifetimes.
_____________________________

 

their various derivatives.  Mortgage-backed securities have been around for a long time, but the same can’t be said, for example, of collateralized debt obligations (CDO’s) or the equally incomprehensible credit default swaps (something like insurance, but not really). 

 

When I was with Mortgage Guarantee Investment Corp (MGIC) in the ‘80’s, we had two standing jokes:  one was about what we called the Sticker Principle.  It referred to the stickers on the front windows of the Savings & Loan associations (the primary home lenders of the time), attesting to the fact that they were “FSLIC Insured,” and would in theory be bailed-out by the Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corp (the S&L equivalent of the FDIC for banks) in the event of any individual failures, let alone a world-wide economic cataclysm where they all went under at

the same time! 

 

We laughed, as we knew that after the first dozen or so bailouts, the Treasury couldn’t print money fast enough to cover the rest.

 

 

The second joke was about mortgage-backed securities.  Deep down in our funny bones we

knew that if enough homeowners actually paid off their mortgages ahead of time (instead of the usual 30 years), investors who owned those securities would not realize the returns they thought were sure things.   HA HA,” we said.  It will never happen!” (I never said mortgage insurance people were particularly funny.)

 

Well we were right, as that scenario never did materialize.  But the one that did had the same effect.  As far as investors were concerned, mortgagors paying off their loans ahead of time would have had the same effect as not paying off their loans at all.  Either way, investors wouldn’t see the returns they thought they had coming on those investments, and their financial house of cards would come tumbling down to the extent their portfolios were loaded with them…

 

...to be continued